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俄罗斯经济问题的症结所在

By 鲁克

俄罗斯经济问题的症结所在

鲁克

如果盘点2014年的世界经济情况,日本和俄罗斯应该算较大的输家。

日本问题在于安培“想造通胀而不得”,而俄罗斯不想通胀,但通胀铺天盖地。如今,卢布大贬了50%,物价狂涨,外资疯逃,老百姓抢美金,黄金,奢侈品。

卢布崩盘不仅重挫俄本国企业,而且冲击到在俄罗斯的外资企业。比如时尚业多家公司的已经决定暂时停止向俄罗斯供货,如Zara,Calvin Klein、阿玛尼等。而苹果公司的官网和门店都已关闭。还有中国车企,吉利和奇瑞,比亚迪等,因为在俄罗斯市场受挫而巨亏,股价重挫。还有报道称,因为应对汇率危机,俄国政府快把钱花没了,开支成了问题,最近甚至停发了克里姆林宫员工的部分薪酬。

很多金融分析家把这视作美俄之间的货币战争或是对俄国经济制裁造成的。当然,我们确实看到了俄国的汇率保卫战。俄政府拼命抛美元,调利率,试图用政府的手段来干预汇市,阻扰卢布贬值。但,这不是阴谋论所谓的国与国的角力。市场总是趋利避害的,俄国和乌克兰的局势不稳,势必造成了在俄投资者的担忧。因为一旦两国战事升级或失控,外国资产随时可能被俄政府冻结或没收。没有一个和平稳定的经济环境,个人财产权无法得到保障。投资者,也看到了普京政府对他国的疆域野心,怎么指望他们会尊重财产权?投资者进俄罗斯投资开厂做生意,买卖石油和军火都是要跟卢布兑换的。现在外商一致预期在俄罗斯投资风险增高,当让准备撤走。金融股市是第一个先知先觉的,于是在汇市,大家沽空卢布,要黄金和美金。几个大的投资机构在市场这么一操作,普通老百姓跟风,这类似蝴蝶效应,到后面大家一起挤兑,一起抛卢布,卢布当然会突然大贬。

经济制裁不是主因

关于经济制裁说,很多政客信这个,包括现在的奥巴马。以前,共和党批评奥巴马在外交斗不过普京。现在情况不同了,卢布崩了,普京焦头烂额,过年还得开会,奥巴马这时候可以得意洋洋地说,你看我的制裁奏效了。

事实上,无论制裁前伊拉克,古巴,朝鲜还是俄罗斯,遭殃的还是老百姓。本来经济制裁的作用是通过禁运和限制贸易来瘫痪独裁国家经济利益,打击的是与独裁政府相关的部分利益集团,让其利益集团反过来给独裁政府施压。但是,独裁政府总是能找到他们的老朋友,绕过这些制裁,比如和中国等意识形态相近的国家的支持。同时,受制裁国家的老百姓,应物资供应短缺而苦不堪言,而独裁者和它的利益集团安然无恙。

经济制裁还有一个反作用,独裁者都会以此煽动民众反美反西方,巩固自己的政权。萨达姆如此,金正日,穆加贝,普京都是如此。即使这些国家经济出现问题,老百姓仇恨得的对象是西方国家,无一例外,这些独裁者支持率都高过70%。通常独裁者乐于打民族主义的牌。于是,经济制裁成了独裁者的替罪羊。

经济制裁当然不利于这些国家的经济,而市场对经济制裁措施的预期,则造成了大量外资脱逃,从而加剧了经济的危机。但制裁本身并不能解决铲除独裁者及其统治集团,使得该国老百姓受惠。
俄国的经济问题在于过度依赖能源出口,国进民退阻碍经济结构的转型

其实不难发现,俄国的经济问题是他们自身造成的。

在俄乌关系紧张之前,俄罗斯经济就已经不好了。据统计, 2013年他们的经济增速是1.3%,低于世界平均的2.2。而梅普时期经济增速都是高过是世界平均水平的。

俄罗斯的问题经济结构过于单一,过度依赖能源出口。尤其是最近三四年,他们的石油和天然气等能源和原材料占出口总额的70%多。连普京自己也在近期承认,西方因为乌克兰问题的经济制裁只是卢布崩盘的因素之一,他估计大约25-30%,他说,主要因素是还是俄国过渡依赖能源出口。由于美国页岩气的技术发展正使得美国从石油进口国变成石油出口国,油价应声而下,作为能源出口为主的俄罗斯当然经济受到打击。

普京再任总统,俄国正处于经济转型的节点。也就是俄罗斯正极力摆脱过去依赖天然资源模式的经济,转向创新技术密集型和服务业的经济。但,这种转型却面临巨大阻力,传统行业的利益集团,尤其是国有的天然气和石油公司正阻碍这种转型。

我们知道,在叶利钦时代,80%的石油能源由私企掌控。但普京上台之后,以偷税和诈骗等罪名囚禁石油企业家,把石油公司的核心部分收为国有。不仅如此,普京还利用行政权力扶持各大国企实现资源、市场和资本扩张,如扶持并控制天然气工业公司(国企),帮助国企统一电力系统公司(国企)购入俄国最大的发电和配送的动力机器公司(私企)的股份,支持国有的对外贸易银行进行资本和业务扩张,还通过立法保证了核心国有企业的主导地位。

有人认为国企最大的优势在于,能利用行政力集中所需的资源和技术。但殊不知国企最大问题在于,在僵化的结构和低效率的管理下,无法使所得的资源和技术充分发挥作用,他们不仅无法适应市场的变动,而且阻碍市场良性发展,因为这种企业的利益集团能利用政府权力资源打击对手。国有企业垄断和单一发展,如今成为了俄国传统经济转型的负担。

俄罗斯过去竞争对手美国之所以能快速复苏,在于美国是私企为主导的经济体,充满竞争活力,创新技术在私企土壤能迅猛成长壮大。页岩气技术就是典型的例子。经济发展不能单靠天然的资源,更重要的是新的技术!而所有的技术革命都只会发生在私有企业为主导的经济体当中。

旧的经济模式,摆脱不了,新的经济模式发展出不来,这就是俄罗斯的问题所在。过去俄罗斯可以靠着国有企业卖石油,天然气等能源和原材料有不错的成绩,但如今页岩气技术让油价暴跌,俄罗斯的石油出口面临困境。正所谓成也萧何,败也萧何!

2000年,普京曾信誓旦旦地说,“给我二十年,还你一个奇迹般的俄罗斯”。如今,俄罗斯人民再次给了普京机会,但是,一个以创新和技术密集为主体的新型经济结构,普京怎么给得了? 中国道家老子说过,国家是“无为而治”,俄罗斯问题在于普京政府本身,错在他们把经济为己任。而一个良性而充满活力的经济体,恰恰是政府干预少,政府和经济分开的制度。

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