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鲁克评论2014年中期选举

By 鲁克

11月初,美国中选举结果出炉,共和党大胜,获得参众议院的多数席位。这意味着,奥巴马政府在之后的两年,不得不面对来自国会更严峻的挑战。奥巴马在08年选举时,曾对选民承诺一旦当选,将进行全面移民改革,因此很多新移民投票给了奥巴马。

但说起移民政策,很有意思,总是到了选前,移民话题成了政斗的焦点,可一旦选举结束,由于国会两党的掣肘,全面移民改革总被搁置。于是,移民议题在人们眼中成了一件光说不练,政客为了选举说的大话。

有人说,共和党是移民政策全面改革阻碍者。情况并非如此, 1986年里根总统曾大赦300万非法移民;小布什总统也一直同情非法移民。小布什在西裔选民中支持率很高,而且他在08年签署法案,对来自加拿大和墨西哥以外国家的孤身儿童给予特殊照顾,在确定他们是否有理由留下之前,这些儿童不得被遣返回国。去年,参议院共和党人的二号人物康尼(John Cornyn)和可能参与16年总统大选的保罗 (Rand Paul) 分别提出,在新的移民方案带给现有1100万非法移民合法身份之前,就是“特赦”之前,应加强边境控制,在美墨边境执行更加严格的安全检查。而共和党,茶党的希望之星,马可卢比奥 (Marco Rubio) 也是支持尽快实施全面移民法案的重要人物。显然,特赦非法移民,给“黑”下来的人一个身份,并不只是民主党的诉求。

2012年美国大选,奥巴马主推“梦想法案”,所谓“梦想法案”是01年提交给国会审议的一个移民议案,旨在给在美国多年生活的,非法移民的孩子、且无案底的人,提供一条合法的入籍途径。(“梦想法案”全名为《非美籍未成年人发展、救济和教育法案》(the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act),由于其首字母组合正好是英文的“梦想”(Dream),因此被称作“梦想法案”)

不过如此大赦,让很多合法申请移民的人反倒落在了非法入境者的后面。

当然,一些保守派反对扩大特赦非法移民或者暂缓遣返,理由归纳起来有以下几点,第一点,是就业市场的压力。第二,非法移民“转正”导致政府的医疗和社保体系无法承担,把纳税人的钱照顾这些非法入侵的人,是鼓励更多外国人的犯法,第三,一些非法移民贩毒,导致治安问题,第四,特赦导致非法移民潮,他们认为里根1986年的大赦是一个失败,非法移民如今1100万,2008年的布什保障孤儿的法案,也导致人贩子更加猖獗。还有一点,当然保守派不会在台面上讲,民主党鼓励非法移民,为获得更多的移民选票。

对新移民的各种恐惧,让保守派联合起来,阻止非法移民的浪潮,其中最近有名的就使一些议员联手要求修宪,要废除宪法十四修正案规定的“出生公民权”。

事实上, 保守派有些担心是多余的,更多人来到美国是为了工作,为了实现自己的“美国梦”,据统计这些人平均年龄在30岁以下,正是精力旺盛的时候,加图研究所的学者Daniel Griswold 曾撰文,移民越多犯罪率反而越底,他们的涌入填补了美国本土制造业的劳动力。http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/Griswold-HigherImmigrationLowerCrime.pdf

最近,消息人士透露,美国总统奥巴马可能最早在11月21日以行政命令方式公布10项改革美国移民政策的计划,包括暂缓将数百万移民驱逐出境。这10项计划包括加强边境安全、提高负责移民事务官员的薪酬等。其中最富争议的是有关移民的政策,将有数百万移民会因“暂缓遣返”政策而不被驱逐出镜。

计划要求扩大暂缓遣返的移民范围,涵盖幼年时抵达美国的人,以及美国公民和合法永久居住的双亲。据估计,后一项政策将允许450万拥有在美国出生小孩的非法成人移民留在美国。在暂缓遣返之列的移民会收到在美工作许可、社会保障号以及政府发放的身份证。

明年,全面的移民改革要在新国会通过难度更大。在今年剩下来的两个月不到的时间,奥巴马只能用行政手段来实现他所谓的梦想法案吧。

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