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增补版:一个方便的谎言– 人造二氧化碳造成全球暖化

By 今评员

增补版说明:本文是对2009 年1月版本的重要增补。增补的一节是本文后面的第7节。同时,正文也有小量的修改。本文从七个方面简要地还原了人造二氧化碳对温室效应的影响比例大约是6600分之一。如此微小的比例,甚至远低于温度测量的误差。把人造二氧化碳的作用无限夸大,说成是造成“全球暖化”的罪魁祸首,是人造全球暖化(以下简称“AGW”)骗局中的关键一环。

人工智能没走多远

By 九喻

人工智能的乐观时期,是人工智能这个行当的初期。人们以为很快就要造出科幻电影里那种和人差不多的机器人了。很多年轻人受了这些科幻片的影响而决定投身于电脑开发。但是,这种乐观来源于对研究的对象本身缺乏了解。
技术专栏作者Lee Gomes为《福布斯》杂志写的文章里,举了搜索引擎google的例子。“Google不同寻常的有用,但和人类理解的智能毫不相关。尽管试了几十年,人工智能研究领域还没有任何人有任何哪怕是最模糊的想法,怎样来跨越这条鸿沟。”

惊人相似的历史:金融模型和气候模型骗局

By 今评员

戈尔的科学顾问,宇航局的著名科学“活动家”,以任意修改温度测量的原始数据而闻名的Hansen博士1988年国会作证时,预测全球变暖在20年内的三种可能趋势,见下图的红绿蓝三条线。其中蓝线(Hansen C)是基于把二氧化碳的排放增长马上停止的结果。黑线是卫星测量的实际温度。二氧化碳的排放没有停止过。它在空气中的浓度稳定增长。但是实际的温度走势,却连蓝线都无法符合。

图:Hansen博士的预测(ABC三条线)与实际温度走势(黑线)

复活?什么复活?

By 九喻

复活节(Easter)的季节,还有什么比“是否相信耶稣复活”更好的调查问题呢?
Rasmussen调查的结果是:79%的美国人相信耶稣从死里复活(resurrection);10%不相信复活真的发生了;11%的人不确定。
同一个调查还询问了关于耶稣的其他问题。88%的美国人相信,耶稣其人确实在历史上存在过,5%不相信,7%的人不确定。
82%的人相信耶稣是神子(the son of God),来到世间为我们的罪(sins)而死。

一个方便的谎言–人造二氧化碳造成全球暖化

By 今评员

本文从六个方面简要地还原了二氧化碳对地球温度影响的极其微小的比例。人造二氧化碳加起来,对于温室效应的贡献是952分之一。人造二氧化碳对于地球大气温度的贡献比例,还要更低。如此微小的比例,甚至远低于温度测量的误差。把二氧化碳的作用无限夸大,说成是造成“全球暖化”的罪魁祸首,是人造全球暖化(以下简称“AGW”)骗局中的关键一环。

保守的犹他州比其他州更热衷于色情消费吗?

By 九喻

哈佛大学的研究人员Benjamin Edelman进行了一项有关色情业的研究,其中的一项发现,看起来似乎有新闻价值,所以不但英文媒体报道,中文媒体都跟进报道。
哈佛大学的一项学术研究显示,在民风保守的犹他州等地,网上色情资讯订户数量位居全国之首。
犹他州以摩门教传统深厚闻名,这项新研究结果发表后,多伦多环球邮报不无调侃地说,“欢迎到犹他,此地乃摩门教故乡,色情网站造访者的天堂”。

人造全球暖化歇斯底里同情者的南辕北辙

By 九喻

“爱心人士”有云:也许人造全球暖化真的是歇斯底里,但环保总是没错的,那干了也不一定有什么坏处。
这个说法的南辕北辙歇斯底里版就是:也许往北边走真的是把方向搞错了,但去那个本来在南方的目的地本身并没有错,那往北走也不一定有什么坏处。
这个故事的共产主义歇斯底里版就是:也许共产主义道路真的是通往奴役之路,但人人平等各取所需的理想本身并没有错,那搞搞共产主义乌托邦试验也不一定有什么坏处。

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